Settlement tracker · in testing
Watch the number your contract actually settles on.
Many hourly and 15-minute crypto contracts don't settle on the price in your exchange app. They settle on a 60-second average of an index built from several exchanges, seven of them for bitcoin. We rebuild that index from the same public order books, second by second, so you can see where the average is heading and what it would take to flip.
Free while in testing. Bitcoin first, then ETH, SOL and XRP.
Final minute
| Your contract: above | 86,250.00 |
| Average of the 42 seconds so far | 86,262.40 |
| Index right now | 86,241.10 |
| Below the strike, yet the contract still settles above it if the index holds. | |
| To flip it, the last 18 s must average | under 86,221.07 |
| About $20 below the current index for every remaining second. | |
| If the index holds here, settles at | 86,256.01 |
|---|---|
How these contracts settle
Four mechanics behind most last-second surprises.
- 01
It's an average, not a last price
The result is the simple average of the index over the 60 seconds before the close. A spike in the final second moves the result by one sixtieth of its size.
- 02
The index isn't any one exchange
For bitcoin it merges the order books of Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp, Gemini, Crypto.com, Bullish and LMAX into one, and takes a weighted mid price that leans most on the orders nearest the top of the book. It can sit several dollars away from the exchange you're watching.
- 03
The minute locks in as it goes
With 20 seconds left, two thirds of the average is fixed. To move the result $10 from there, the index has to move $30 and stay there.
- 04
Exchanges drop in and out
An exchange whose price strays more than 5% from the others, or whose data is more than 10 seconds old, is left out until it recovers. If that's the exchange you're watching, the two can disagree.
What the tracker shows
The number and the math behind it. No predictions.
The index, every second
Our live rebuild of the settlement index, from the exchanges that make it up and the published method.
The running average
Once the final minute starts, the average so far and how many seconds are locked in.
What it takes to flip
For any strike you enter, the average the remaining seconds would need to cross it, and how far that is from the index now.
Which exchanges count
Who's in the index right now, who was dropped and why.
It doesn't place trades, see your account or tell you what to buy. You never connect an account or an API key.
Where it stands
Built in order. Each piece opens when the one before it has earned trust.
StatusOctober 2026
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Now
Index engine
RunningThe bitcoin index rebuilt live from seven exchange order books on our own servers, and checked against the official result at every close.
The tracker doesn't open until it matches close after close. -
Next
Free live tracker
BuildingA live page for BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP with everything in § 02.
-
Later
Alerts
PlannedA message when a strike you're watching gets close to flipping.
-
Later
Data feed
PlannedThe same numbers over an API, for people building their own tools.
Questions
Is this the official settlement number?
No. It's our own rebuild from public exchange data, following the index provider's published method. The official value comes from the index provider and is the only one your contract uses. Ours is an estimate and can differ, most of all when an exchange feed hiccups.
Which contracts does it cover?
Crypto contracts that settle on a 60-second average of a multi-exchange index, starting with hourly and 15-minute bitcoin contracts. ETH, SOL and XRP come next. Check your contract's rules to see which index and which minute it uses.
Will it tell me what to buy?
No. It shows the index, the running average and the math. What you do with that is up to you.
Do I need to connect an account?
No. The tracker never sees your account, your positions or your keys.
What will it cost?
The live tracker is free while it's in testing. Pricing for alerts and the data feed comes later, and waitlist members hear first.
Who's behind it?
Construct Labs, a small independent research lab. The same people who wrote the studies. We aren't affiliated with any exchange, prediction market or index provider.
Get it when it opens.
One email when the tracker goes live. No newsletter.